By Connor Hart
Prediction-market platform Polymarket is stepping up its surveillance efforts ahead of the U.S. midterms.
The increased effort comes as election-market probabilities are more often cited alongside traditional polls, raising concerns that attempts to manipulate trading activity could create a misleading picture of political races beyond the platform itself, Polymarket said on Tuesday.
"We build detections around how someone would actually try to manipulate an election market and what that activity would leave behind," said Shana Bautista, head of global intelligence and investigations at Polymarket.
Polymarket said its U.S. and international platforms use both automated alerts and human-led searches to identify potential instances of insider trading and other forms of market manipulation.
The company uses an internally developed system called PolyGraph, which combines internal models, blockchain analytics, trade surveillance, open-source intelligence and public reports, to identify suspicious activity and investigate potential misconduct.
Its surveillance efforts also target individuals who may have access to confidential election information, including campaign workers and ballot counters, who could potentially profit from trading before results become public.
Investigators examine trading patterns and account connections to identify potential misuse of nonpublic information, the company said.
Substantiated violations could result in trading restrictions, disciplinary or legal action, or referrals to regulators and law enforcement, it added.
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